Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, director of the Meteorological Department in Srinagar, told Rising Kashmir that prevailing global climate signals, including La Niña, point to a relatively warmer and milder winter for Kashmir, while stressing that winter will nevertheless arrive.
He added that the valley has seen comparatively little snowfall in recent years and that a similar pattern could continue, but emphasized that the ultimate snowfall will depend largely on the behaviour of western disturbances that bring precipitation to the region.
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The World Meteorological Organisation noted that long‑term warming and climate variability are increasingly interacting with phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, making seasonal outcomes more complex, though it has not forecast an absence of winter for India and highlights broader warming trends across Asia.
Independent forecaster Faizan Arif cautioned against attributing Kashmir’s winter weather to ENSO phases alone, citing a lack of consistent data linking El Niño, La Niña or neutral years to snowfall, and pointed to additional drivers like the Polar Vortex, Siberian High, NAO and Indian Ocean Dipole.
